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Economy 2020-06-15T04:22:15+03:00
Ukrainian news
Bankers Do Not Forecast Hryvnia Devaluation By Late 2019 And In Q1 Of 2020

Bankers Do Not Forecast Hryvnia Devaluation By Late 2019 And In Q1 Of 2020

bank, hryvnia, Bankers, hryvnia rate

Bankers do not forecast the devaluation of the hryvnia until the end of 2019 and in the first quarter of 2020.

They reported this to the Ukrainian News Agency.

Stanislav Lysianskyi, head of the investment and trading business department of the Alliance Bank, said that the main factor in strengthening the hryvnia is the high activity of non-residents in the government domestic loan bonds market (purchases of securities) and the sale of state-owned corporations such as the Naftogaz of Ukraine national joint stock company.

The latest government bonds auction showed a high demand for securities from outside (more than UAH 11 billion in equivalent), despite a decrease in yield to record levels.

"Further strengthening of the hryvnia will depend on the actions of the NBU. This week, the NBU bought a large amount of currency from the market, but did not allow the national currency to sharply strengthen. The difference in the rate of intervention was 2-4 kopecks per day. Thus, it seems that the NBU does not allow the currency to strengthen significantly, but at the same time it still shows a trend. Whether it reaches the 23 UAH/USD mark will depend only on the actions of the regulator," the banker said.

In the first quarter of 2020, according to Lysianskyi, the rate will depend, first of all, on the actions of speculators and holders of government bonds.

“In January-March, large repayments of previously issued government bonds are waiting for us. Whether non-residents will transfer the resource to new bonds or whether they will fix income is still unclear. International markets do not provide a sufficient alternative for the yield of financial instruments. Ukrainian bonds, despite a decrease in yield and prospects for a further decrease of discount rates remain a very attractive alternative for foreign investors. You will also need to understand with what balance the budget for 2019 will be implemented. Maybe, the Ministry of Finance will have to place large amounts of government bonds in January, which will attract new receipts currency in Ukraine," he added.

Thus, in the first half of the quarter there is no reason to expect a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia.

The second half of the quarter will be affected by the beginning of the importers' active work cycle and further operations with government bonds.

According to the Idea Bank, among the main reasons that affect the strengthening of the hryvnia can be identified: foreign investment in government bonds; agricultural exporters and metallurgical products; labor migrants who actively send money to Ukraine and the sale of currency by state-owned companies.

As noted in the Idea Bank, by the end of this year, the hryvnia has every chance to gain a foothold to the level of 23 UAH/USD and end 2019 at that level.

In the first quarter of 2020, all of the abovementioned reasons for the strengthening of the hryvnia will continue, and the bank expects an exchange rate band in the range of 22.50-23.50 UAH/USD.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in the year to date, the hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank market has strengthened by 16%.

Bankers previously forecast a devaluation of up to 24.50 UAH/USD by the end of November.

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