Russia increases pressure on Europe regarding war in Ukraine against background of US uncertainty - ISW

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that the russian authorities are intensifying pressure on European countries regarding the issue of the russian federation's war against Ukraine against the background of the uncertainty of the US policy.

"The Kremlin is intensifying a reflexive pressure campaign aimed at influencing decision-making in the West in favor of russia ahead of or instead of possible future negotiations on the settlement of the war in Ukraine," the ISW said.

Russian president vladimir putin spoke by phone with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on November 15 and repeated several Kremlin information narratives aimed at influencing the German government and other Western powers to push Ukraine toward early peace talks instead of providing Ukraine with further military support.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the Scholz-putin call "Pandora's box" and warned that this call helps putin achieve his key goals: to reduce his isolation in the international community and to conduct negotiations on the terms desired by russia, "which will lead to nothing."

Putin and other senior russian officials have recently stepped up rhetoric aimed at influencing the foreign policy of the new US administration led by President-elect Donald Trump.

"The Kremlin has also recently confirmed its reluctance to compromise on the terms of any possible future talks, while making clear that the Kremlin's long-standing goal of Ukraine's full surrender remains unchanged.

“The Kremlin is likely seeking to take advantage of the uncertainty regarding future US policy toward Ukraine by intensifying its campaign of reflexive pressure against Ukraine's European allies," the ISW stated.

High-ranking russian officials, including Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, in particular, used phone calls with Western political and military officials to promote the Kremlin's information narratives and try to force the West to make premature concessions on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity from 2022.

At the same time, Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with military support through various means and platforms.

ISW Key Findings for November 15:

• The Kremlin is intensifying a reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing decision-making in the West in favor of russia ahead of or instead of possible future negotiations on a settlement of the war in Ukraine.
• Abkhaz oppositionists protested against the November 15 agreement between the de facto government of the Georgian region of Abkhazia and russia aimed at expanding the rights of russian investors in Abkhazia.
• Western partners of Ukraine continue to provide military support to Ukraine through various means and platforms.
• Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in the Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove, while russian troops have advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Vuhledar.

The Kremlin continues to expand its "Time of Heroes" program to create a new social class of veterans loyal to the regime and ideology of russian president vladimir putin.

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