Kremlin launches information campaign to downplay significance of AFU operation in Kursk Oblast – ISW

The Kremlin is conducting an elaborate information campaign to downplay the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk Oblast and portray it as limited, in contrast to the russian aggressor state's advance towards Pokrovsk, which the russian media is portraying as a major victory.

This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of August 21, 2024, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

“The Kremlin appears to have launched an intricate messaging campaign aimed at justifying to its domestic audience why Russia is prioritizing maintaining the initiative in eastern Ukraine over immediately expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast,” the report says.

For example, government sources close to the administration of the president of the aggressor state of russia told the russian publication Meduza that the kremlin is actively trying to convince russian society to accept the limited Ukrainian presence in the Kursk Oblast as the "new normal" and to downplay the significance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s operation.

The sources also noted that the kremlin will use propaganda to encourage the russians to wait until russian forces retake these territories after an “inevitable Ukrainian defeat in eastern Ukraine."

In addition, the sources added that the kremlin is redirecting russian concerns about the Kursk Oblast by preoccupying domestic society with humanitarian aid campaigns for the Kursk Oblast residents, and noted that the kremlin has decided not to cancel the upcoming Kursk Oblast gubernatorial election, scheduled for September, to minimize panic in the region.

At the same time, the russian Central Election Commission decided to postpone local elections in seven districts of the Kursk Oblast affected by the operation of the AFU due to security risks, and the kremlin may have decided to hold gubernatorial elections on schedule to replace the acting governor of the Kursk Oblast Alexei Smirnov, who has overseen much of the local russian response to the AFU operation.

Meduza also noted that the state media of the russian federation after the operation of the AFU began to increasingly portray the Kursk Oblast and its residents as supporting the russian war in Ukraine, despite some minor violations in the daily life of the residents during the war.

"The Kremlin may be also attempting to weaponize state media's coverage of its months-long offensive in eastern Ukraine to advance its messaging campaign about the incursion. Russian state TV channels are notably covering Ukraine’s incursion in Kursk Oblast as a limited operation, while actively contrasting it with Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction, which Russian media is painting as major victories," analysts said.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC, said that part of the russian troops in the Kursk Oblast was practically “in a cauldron.” However, the russians are trying to hide the situation.

ISW analysts previously noted that the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk Oblast of the russian federation illustrates how Ukrainian forces can use maneuver warfare to offset russian superiority in manpower and logistics.

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