The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered the current forecast for the harvest of grain and oil crops this year by 4%, or 2.8 million tons, to 71.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast.
This is stated in the message of the UGA, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
At the same time, in 2023, according to the UGA, the harvest amounted to 82.8 million tons of grain and oil crops.
According to the report, another decrease in the forecast of the harvest in the new season is caused by hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which had a negative impact on the potential yield of late grain and oil crops.
Under such conditions, the export of grain and oilseeds in the new season of the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY) will amount to 41 million tons, which is 2.5 million tons less than the previous forecast.
In the last season, which ended on June 30, according to the UGA, the export of grain and oilseeds amounted to 57.5 million tons of grain and oilseeds.
Thus, the drop in exports compared to last season may amount to more than 16 million tons.
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at the level of 19.8 million tons (22 million tons in 2023), while the potential export of wheat in the 2024/2025 MY may be about 13 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, the transitional balances were almost 1 million tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may amount to 4.95 million tons, which is 350,000 tons more than the previous estimate, and the potential export in the 2024/2025 MY is at the level of about 2 million tons (last season, the export of barley was almost 2.5 million tons).
According to the report, expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to a prolonged dry period in a number of regions.
Therefore, the UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year's harvest, which was 29.6 million tons.
At the same time, the potential export can amount to about 18.5 million tons (last season, the export was 29.3 million tons, including due to temporary stocks of corn).
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2024 at the level of 12.8 million tons, which is 0.9 million tons lower than the previous estimate (in 2023 – 14.2 million tons).
At the same time, the potential export can be up to 250,000 tons, while the processing of sunflower for oil can reach 12.5 million tons.
In 2024, the UGA rapeseed harvest is expected to be 4.3 million tons (4.5 million tons in 2023), while the 2024/2025 MY export may amount to 3.4 million tons (in the current season – 3.7 million tons) .
The UGA expects soybean harvest in 2024 at the level of 4.8 million tons, which is 0.7 million tons less than the previous estimate (4.9 million tons in 2023), and potential export - 3.5 million tons (in the past season - almost 3 million tons).
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, as of July 26, agricultural enterprises harvested 22.3 million tons of grain and oil crops from an area of 5,872,000 hectares.
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